In Typical Fashion, Cable Set To Rally
- Posted by: faithmight, March 8th, 2010 at 12:44 am
- Comments: 0
Two weeks ago Friday, I wrote how I saw the market turning for the $GBPUSD. Instead when the market opened last week, cable plummeted to new lows to 1.4779. The new lows invalidated the first 2 red flags I had indicated in my article. However, since making that new low, the $GBPUSD has been in an up channel making higher lows and higher highs.
With sterling facing such poor fundamentals, what could rally this beleaguered currency? The answer: RISK. Friday's release of the non-farm payrolls (jobs) report was better-than-expected with the unemployment rate dropping from the previous month and the country loosing fewer jobs than expected. The market took that report as a signal that the world's largest economy was still recovering and as such investors' risk appetite increased. When risk appetite increases in the markets, $GBP benefits every single time across the board. Now while I don't believe that sterling can truly rally with such a bleak economic, fiscal, and monetary landscape, I do believe in technical corrections.
Now that price has broken above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2nd bearish wave on the daily chart, watch what price does at 1.5250. If price can get above AND CLOSE above that level, I am watching for the rally to extend towards 1.5300 where we may find resistance at the 50% Fibonacci level on the weekly chart. The $GBPUSD has already corrected past the weekly 38.2% Fibonacci level so the possibility of a return to the downtrend is very likely. Price action towards and at 1.5250 will hold the clue to whether this rally continues toward 1.5300 or reverses back towards 1.5000.
It's actually a light calendar this week from both the US and UK. From the US, this week is retail sales and trade balance numbers. Out of the UK, we have trade balance, GDP estimate, industrial production and manufacturing production. A light calendar makes the pair much more vulnerable to comments coming from the BoE members or European Union officials so be aware of what is coming off the newswires.
And as always, trade what you see folks, not what I think!
Tickers: GBPUSD
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First day of the last month in of the 1st Quarter of 2010
Posted by: kevinmhughes, March 1st, 2010 at 5:22 am, Comments: 0
Over the weekend, news came out about how Europe ($EUR) is going to bail out Greece with $30,000,000,000. It should be very advantageous for the $EURUSD and some other European crosses. With this news, the $USDX will be affected today. Below are the charts/levels for the $EURUSD & $AUDUSD (as I'm always preaching, when watching these pairs, we need to keep an eye out on the commodities, they are a tell tail of what type of price action we will see).
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And The Cable Breaks
Posted by: faithmight, February 21st, 2010 at 9:26 pm, Comments: 0Last week, we were watching for:
...a rally to complete the quarter to 1.5750. But after that target is hit, it is time to watch price to determine what cable does at these levels. To the upside lie a number of resistance levels: 1.5764, yesterday’s high; 1.5774, the high on February 5; and then 1.5800, the [...]Tickers: GBPUSD
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Trades, Losses, and Ego.
Posted by: ragheehorner, February 17th, 2010 at 4:00 pm, Comments: 0
I recorded three short five minute vidoes to follow-up last week's Talk My Book video...What?!? Did you think I was not going to take the opportunity to discuss last week's spectacular crash and burn.
As the signature on my emails read: "...sometimes wrong, but never in doubt."
I'm back to my five minute daytrading set [...] -
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Talk Your Book
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Follow Up to Set Ups I am Watching
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The yen is telling an interesting story today…
Posted by: ragheehorner, February 9th, 2010 at 1:08 pm, Comments: 0Update: Throughout this article I discuss the "yen" as in the Japanese Yen itself and the $USDJPY which ofcourse is the pair of the U.S. Dollar and Japanese Yen.
So far the yen seems pretty unaffected by today's dollar sell-off through the major psychological level 80.00 and the Dow's rally back up through 10k.
For most traders the $USDJPY [...] -
Two $EURUSD Set Ups to Watch.
Posted by: ragheehorner, February 8th, 2010 at 2:35 pm, Comments: 0Probably like many of you, the Red Bull cans are piling up as your try and stay awake today. Boring markets mean accumulation cycles and that's what I'm patiently watching today. The 60 minute chart of the $EURUSD has a nice asymmetrical triangle pattern as prices have formed an intraday triple top. It's a soft [...]
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